The dust seems to have settled on the Indian Embassy Bombing in Kabul – well at least figuratively. In reality it has muddled the already complex real poltik game in Afghanistan and raised a much larger cloud then the attackers bargained for.
The attack brought all round condemnation from countries across the world and a denial from Pakistan that the ISI was involved. India’s foreign secretary visited Kabul and we will now have to play a wait and watch game till the government decides on what to do.
In this post I plan to discuss the alternatives that the Government of India has with respect to its Afghan policy. However, since anything with respect to Afghanistan necessarily needs to be hyphenated with respect to Pakistan we would time and again deviate into the events in Pakistan and its impact on the geo-political scenario.
But before we start our discussion on the topic of this blog I would like to communicate my extreme disgust at the Executive , the Politicians and the Judiciary in Pakistan for the hash they have made of the situation. The damn place is a mess and there aren’t words to describe it more equivocally without entering the realms of "NON-PARLIAMENTARY LANGUAGE".
The Indian Embassy bombing in Kabul was a act of terror that was directed towards a government that has been a friend of the afghan people for a very very long time. As a matter of fact the Indian Government was among the few governments that continued to support the North Alliance against the Pakistan supported Taliban movement. Further amongst all the donor countries that are active in Afghanistan, Indian Aid has been directed to creating grass root infrastructure which will strengthen local and national democracy. This effective aid has in fact created enemies for the India among Afghanistan’s neighbours.
Background
Pakistan as a country has always lacked strategic depth and often it has harboured ambitions to overcome this lack of strategic depth by using Afghanistan as a hinterland or a buffer state. As a matter of fact control over Afghanistan Government is critical for the very survival of Pakistan as a state. Lets examine this point in a little more detail.
Map 1 : Afghan-Pakistan Border
The border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan has traditionally been populated by the fiercely autonomous Pashtun tribes. These tribes have been able to maintain their independence over multiple centuries. The Sikh confederation used the Pashtun’s as a buffer state and when the British took over the control of the area from the Sikhs they decided to impose the boundary through the creation of the Durrand Line, which bisected the traditional Pashtun Heartland between British India and Afghanistan. Pakistan upon its creation inherited the Durrand line from the British. While the British India was a state that provided a strategic depth like none others, Pakistan was venerable form day one. As a matter of fact I will not be surprised if archives of British India and Britain indicate that it was designed that way. This lack of strategic depth was made even more evident by the defeat that Pakistan suffered at the hands of India in 1965 and 1971. In order to overcome this evident geopolitical deficiency Military Planners have thought it necessary for Pakistan to have a enormous amount of influence on Afghanistan. Pakistan exerted this influence in past via the diplomatic channels as also through the funding of Afghan Movements against the Soviet Occupation of Afghanistan. Subsequent to the Soviet withdrawal Pakistan tried to control Afghanistan through the Taliban Movement.The Taliban was the creation of the Pakistan Army and was funded, directed and controlled by the ISI.
The second reason for Pakistan’s need to continuously engage and dominate Afghanistan is related to its very survival as a country. At the time of independence of Pakistan from British rule the Pashtun people had asked for a country of their own straddling the Pakistan and Afghan frontiers. The Khudai Khitmatgar was created with this singular purpose of the creation of the Pashtun Nation. This ambition of a independent homeland has still not died and has been further strengthened due to the weakening of the Central Government in Pakistan. The problem gets further exuberated due to the fact that Pakistan has never had effective control on these areas and NWFP has continued to been governed through tribal agencies rather then through established civil administration. The lack of a effective civil administration, the ambitions for a separate Pashtunistan and the growth of militant Islam have presented themselves as a potent challenge to the government of Pakistan.
The third compulsion that drives Pakistan’s policies in Afghanistan is the preservation of its trade. For years together Pakistan has provided Afghanistan its only access to a seaport. This arrangement has made many a generations of the Peshawar/ Rawalpindi Truck Mafia prosperous beyond their wildest dreams. Afghanistan also provides Pakistan access to the Central Asian Republics and their rich Hydrocarbon reserves. One of the main reasons why Pakistan needs to have a subservient Afghanistan is to ensure that Pakistan and only Pakistan can ensure and assure any investor in the CIS Hydrocarbon Sector of security of his investments. This will make Pakistan strategically important for countries that want to secure their energy security and this place them in a position of advantage in trade and commerce. Further, Pakistan would like to retain its strategic position as the sole and preferred port for Imports into Afghanistan
The Fourth and a reversible influence on the Pakistan’s Afghan policy is Saudi Arabia. Even after the departure of the Soviets from Afghanistan the Saudi Arabian Monarchy and its Cahoots continue to support the spread of militant Islam in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The specific reason for this is the Saudi Royal family’s dependence on Pakistan’s Military as the mercenaries of last resort. This was clearly demonstrated when the House of Saud was faced with a internal rebellion from the household militia and the use of Pakistani Commando’s during the Seize of the Mecca Mosque. By spreading its brand of Islam the Saudi Royals are in a position to ensure the continued availability of Pakistan and its resources when in need.
India in Afghanistan
India has traditionally maintained friendly relationship with Afghanistan. The primary motive of this was to effectively counterbalance the Pakistani strategy region. However, the effectiveness of this policy has largely depended on the disposition of the regime in Kabul. India was one of the few countries welcome the invasion of Afghanistan by Soviet Union and recognise the government of Afghanistan. The Indian Intelligence agencies shared a strong working relationship with its Afghan counterparts the KHAD. India has also traditionally helped Afghanistan in capacity building and a sizable number of Afghan students have completed their higher education in India. India also maintained a medical mission in Kabul for over 2 decades. Its also said that President Najib’s family received political asylum in the days prior and post t
he fall of the Najib regime in Afghanistan.
Post the collapse of the Najib government and during the Afghan Civil War that followed, the indian presence and influence in afghanistan waned to near zero. as a matter of fact when the Indian Airlines flight IC 814 was hijacked to Kandhahar, the Indians has no political levers or contacts to fall back on in order to secure the release of the hostages.India however did have a presence in afghanistan in the Panjshir Valley in support of the Northern Alliance and operated a 25 bed Military Hospital in Farkhor, Tajikistan. It was in this hospital that the Lion of Panjshir, Ahmed Shah Massud was brought post the fatal suicide attack on him on the 9th Sept 2001. Post 9/11 and the American entry in the Global War on Terror Indian Intelligence agencies helped the US secure the foot hold in afghanistan.
India participation and presence in afghanistan has greatly increased substantially. The Indians are the largest regional Aid providers to Afghanistan and have committed close to $750 Million Dollars of Aid over the last couple of years. The Indian Government is in the form of a Major Highway construction project [Zaranj-Delaram Highway] and the reconstruction of the afghan parliament. The latter is of huge symbolic importance and conveys the desire of the Indian people of see a health democracy in Afghanistan. The Highway project on the other hand is extremely strategic to afghanistan. This project will create world class highway in afghanistan and linkup with a Iranian highway that connects with Bandar Abbas. Effectively the proposed new highway will allow Afghanistan to break the stranglehold of Pakistan on its economy and its foreign affairs. Its important to note that a couple of years ago India had helped Iran to strengthen the rail link between Bandar Abbas and the Turkmenistan Border and the same link could be extended to link up into afghanistan. Its believed that this new highway will allow India to increase its trade with Afghanistan. There is also a huge amount of investment that India is committing to the Afghan Telecommunication and Information and Broadcasting sector. This investment is in the form of funding as well as technical expertise that India is contributing. The Indian investments in roads, ICT and the electricity sector will help better integrate the Afghan country. More importantly all of the above is also likely to weaken Pakistan’s capability to control Afghanistan. A summary of some of the key Indian Projects in Afghanistan is mentioned below:
- Around 400 BRO personnel involved in Zaranj-Delaram highway.
- Afghanistan’s Parliament Building
- Power transmission line from Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul
- Reconstruction of Salma Dam power project, Herat
- Telephone exchanges in 11 provinces
- Television network uplink from Kabul, downlinks in all provincial capitals
- CII project for training 3,000 Afghans in vocations ranging from carpentry, plumbing to masonry and tailoring.
The objective of the Indian aid program is to help the afghan people to create a political and economic system which does not make it dependent on Pakistan. This the Indians assume will help decrease the influence of the Pakistani’s in Afghanistan.
A strong and independent Afghanistan will also help India accomplish its surround strategy of Pakistan, tie down at least part of the Pakistani army along the Durrand line and thus reduce the capacity of Pakistan to undertake military adventure like Kargil in the future. It will also reduce the capability of Pakistani Army to foster militancy in Jammu and Kashmir for the foreseeable future.
The success of the Afghan policy of India will benefit India in the following ways:
- Help India to increase its share in its trade with afghanistan.
- Provide India with access to the CIS energy reserves via the Chabahar Free Port that India is helping develop in Iran.
- It will increase it capability to bring to bear appropriate interventions in support of ethnic groups within Pakistan and thus tie down the Pakistani Army and the ISI for the foreseeable future.
Recent India specific developments in Afghanistan
Off late there have been a number of attacks on Indian Assets in Afghanistan. These attacks come in the background of a worsening security situation in Pakistan more specifically in the agency governed areas of Pakistan. In this section we will analyse we will analyse the pattern of the attacks and more specifically the reasons for the same.In the last section of this post I will discuss the long term ramifications of a successful Afghan Policy on India and why I would call the successful execution of the same as a master stroke.
Last one year has witnessed a increase in the frequency of attacks on Indian Assets.
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As a matter of fact even a cursory glance at the timelines and the severity of the attacks indicate that 2008 has witnessed both a increase in the frequency and the intensity of these attacks. A couple of days after the attack on the Indian Embassy alert Engineers working on a Road construction project detected a bomb on board their bus. The same was defused thus averting a major tragedy.
The real question that would baffle a common man is why are all of these attacks sudde
nly happening. Basis the information that is appearing on Blogs, Internet Forums, News Articles, Editorial and other open sources the key reasons of the increased attacks can be attributed to the following reasons:
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India’s increasing influence in Afghanistan
The influence of the Indians in the affairs of Afghanistan has been on the rise. India has not only been successful in completing all its committed projects on time but more importantly has ensured that most of the aid is used to create work in the local economy rather then for paying foreign expatriates. The Indians have also increased the quantum of aid in the form of Student scholarships to the Indian University System as also the number of seats available to Afghan National Army in the Defence Training Schools. Overall Pakistan seems to be loosing its control over the Afghan Psychic and that means its time to hit the panic button for the Pakistani establishment.
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Completion of the Chabahar-Melek-Zarang-Delaram Transportation Route
The successful completion of the Zarang-Delaram Highway will provide Afghanistan with a alternate route to the sea via the Chabahar-Melek-Zarang-Delaram axis. Its important to note that a rail and road link from Chabahar to Zarang already exist and the extension to Delaram will potentially close the chapter on the imports via Karachi/Gadwar in Pakistan. The Taliban/Pakistani’s need to stop/delay this route atleast until they are not powerful enough to cause long term disruption.
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Indian support to Nationalist movements in Pakistan
I have always thought of a day when the Indian Government would finally start paying back Pakistan in the same coin and I think that that day came as soon as the Indians decided to fund the Zarang-Delaram Highway project. The Indian BRO contingent provides RAW with the perfect cover for deploying its folks in Afghanistan. The physical proximity to Iran as well as Balochistan, Pakistan makes things a lot more convenient. It would be naive for us to assume that India has not deployed its strategic assets in the region. As a matter of fact there have been Blog and Forum posting that suggest that India has deployed both CIT-J AND CIT-X elements into afghanistan. There have also been unconfirmed reports that Baitulla Meshud is being funded by the RAW and that it has atleast some role in the attacks on the Pakistani Army in Balochistan and the areas of Pakistan bordering the Helmund province.
So what was the motive behind the Bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul. I personally think that the objective of the ISI could be two folds. First was to send a warning to the Indians telling them that the ISI can attack and hurt the Indians when and where ever they want to. The second plausible explanation could be that it was a attack on two specific high value targets namely Mr. Venket V Rao and Brig R D Mehta. It needs to be noted that Press and Political Counsel is typically a role that is taken up by RAW operatives in the Foreign Missions abroad. Brig Mehta would have been a target because he was the Military Attache to the Indian Embassy and was said to be deeply involved in capacity building for the Afghan National Army(ANA).
Conclusion
A long term peace in the Indian Sub-continent would be possible only through the containment of Pakistan. India and other stakeholders in the region will have to make some difficult decisions in order to achieve this. The ideal scenario for India would be if Pakistan was to officially give up terrorism as a instrument of state policy. However, if this was not possible then a host of options including the balkanisation of Pakistan will have to be explored. This second option is the easiest way forward. The presence of the state has already disappeared in large parts of NWFP and Balochistan. If foreign actors were to decide they could create all the factors that would be favourable for the creation of a separate Balochistan state and a Federation between Pashtunistan and Afghanistan. That will leave Pakistan with only Sindh and Punjab, which would automatically propel Sindh to break off due to the intense rivalry between the Sindhi and Punjabi politicians, effectively Pakistan will be reduced to a ghost of its past.
This second scenario would however create problems of a different type and may not be desirable unless there is a central power that can control all of these micro actors. This would also work in favour of India from a long term perspective because it will effectively jeopardise China’s quest for a port in the Indian Ocean. More on that some other day..
(All inferences are based on information published in blogs, news items, ,postings on Internet forums and other such similar open sources of information)
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